We have a deal. There will be no ‘Grexit’. People will be dancing a jig in the streets of Athens and Berlin I’m sure. Market reaction? Euro spiked when agreement was announced and has since come off. Pretty much zip then.
Does anyone really believe that’s the end of it and Greece won’t be back in the news later this year? Is the amount of money provided to Greece enough? Hmmm, I doubt that very much. Every amount quoted in the past has been revised significantly higher. I think we all forget that it is only an agreement rather than a deal. It’s a framework. Greece has to meet every criteria laid out in the agreement, every point has to be implemented “step by step” otherwise we’ll be back to square one. Bet’s on Greece sticking to the agreement? About as likely as me knowing what is number 1 in the charts at the moment. (If that is still even going).
There are still a multitude of questions to be asked. Is the Eurozone now the most fractured it has ever been? It hardly seems the most harmonious environment at present and a deal has been done through gritted teeth by both sides. Is this the beginning of the end of the ‘project’? Should Greece have been cut loose for their own sake? Is the Greek economy strong enough to even sit at a table with Germany and France? It’s like Accrington Stanley playing Manchester United and Chelsea every week. You know the outcome isn’t going to be pleasant and it’s one sided.
Once Draghi speaks at the ECB Press Conference we’ll have more detail. I’ll send a full breakdown of the agreement and plan on Thursday once everything has been rubberstamped.
We’re flirting with 1.40 again. I would look at implementing orders at this level as the single currency will prove to be erratic this week. Send me an email and we can discuss a plan. What else do we have out this week that will have an impact on GBP/EUR? We have CPI out of the Eurozone tomorrow and the main event of the week will be the ECB Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday. Expect some sizeable movements on EUR crosses then. If you have a requirement this week please get in touch prior to Thursday.
We’re seeing a move higher on Cable this morning although not by much. We moved from 1.54 the figure early Friday morning to test 1.55 and after a few attempts around 1.5510 we pushed up to 1.5550 late Friday afternoon. We’re a little lower this morning. If we have a sustained shift above 1.5550 I’d suggest we’ll start to look towards 1.56/1.57 again. Please contact me to discuss implementing orders to the upside. As you know though, I am very much in the stronger USD camp. We have Yellen speaking on Thursday further to Retail Sales being released on Tuesday. Do I think 1.50 or 1.60? I’ve been consistent in my view on Cable and I think we’ll push lower again. If you are USD seller please get in touch and we can look at suitable levels to aim for.
If you have any questions please let me know.
Have a great week and I’ll send an update on Thursday.