I’m sure everyone is now back on yet another health kick after the Easter break. I think this is my fourth in as many months. Consistent I like to think. Now the long weekend and too much food has been put to one side for us it's back to focusing on the currency markets. What do we expect to happen this week? Drum roll. Not very much. It’s a fairly light week in terms of data and I don’t see too much movement on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and EUR/USD this week. The Greek repayment date is due tomorrow with €448 Million expected to be repaid to the IMF. Will they or won’t they pay? Does it matter? The repayment date will just be rolled rather than have Greece default. On a side note, Greek Prime Minister Tspiras is in Moscow today meeting with Putin. Purely coincidental or is there some kind of deal and financial assistance in play? Granted, a slightly ridiculous notion although I’m sure the rumours will circulate in any case.
After the disappointing Non Farm Roll data figure from the US last week the downward move on GBP/USD has stalled, for now. I expect the GBP/USD to trade between 1.4750 – 1.4950 this week. If you are a USD seller and can secure anything under 1.49 I would suggest this is good value to lock in part/all of your exposure. We’ve bounced off levels around 1.47 the figure a few times and I’d suggest we’ll be in for range bound period prior to the UK General election. Please contact me to discuss implementing an order.
On GBP/EUR much of a muchness for the time being. I know most EUR buyers are holding out for the magical number of 1.40 the figure however I don’t see that level being reached. If someone offered you over 1.35 a year ago I’m pretty sure you would have filled your boots. If you have a requirement please do let me know and we’ll make sure we try and achieve the best rate at the best possible time for you. EUR seller? Aim to stagger your levels on a market order basis to the downside to take advantage of any bouts of Sterling weakness in the run up to the UK general election.
What do we have out this week? Not much in terms of data. Hopefully the sun comes out as that may make the week a little more interesting. Next week we should see a return to some volatility and events that will move currencies out of their slumber.
Please contact me to discuss any requirements that you may have and we can implement a strategy for Q2. There will be a lot of volatility with the UK general election and other events so let’s make sure you have protection in place to the downside whilst allowing yourself room to take advantage of any moves to the upside in your favour.
Have a great end to a short week. Any questions please do let me know.
Written by Liam Alexander