The sparring sessions between David Cameron and Ed Miliband commenced on Thursday evening with what I’d called an event rather than a debate. Paxman contributed in his own unique style with some questions that were befitting of a televised event and some that were, for want of a better phrase, playground bully tactics. Still, he got his name on twitter so that’s what counts. The election will now be centre stage for the next month or so in addition to the Greek/Eurozone situation.
Where do I think GBP/EUR is going for the next few weeks? I think we’ll push slightly higher. We’ve had a rebound in EUR over the past few weeks after the overdone move on EUR/USD to the downside that went to 1.05. We pushed back up to 1.10 this week and have started to drift a little lower after hitting a resistance level. This will correlate to a move on GBP/EUR to around 1.39 the figure in the coming weeks I would think. We’ll be in for some range bound trading in that period so don’t expect any wild swings in either direction as it will be a gradual move higher.
If you are looking to purchase EUR I would suggest placing market orders at the below levels for April –
We’ve settled down after the past few weeks of volatility. From an attempted break higher to 1.55 on the 1st March to a low of under 1.47 on 18th March there has been sizeable moves. I think we’ll be in for a few weeks of trading between 1.47-1.51. This is of course still enough variance to impact the rate of exchange you receive. Achieving the best rate at the best possible time can add percentage points on to your rate of exchange that will add to your bottom line.
If you are a USD buyer consider the below levels to aim for –
If you are a USD seller consider the below levels to aim for –
I still maintain that GBP/USD will push to 1.45 this year and I’d expect this to occur end of April/beginning of May to coincide with the UK general election.
On the data front Tuesday is the day to focus on. Without boring you too much we have –
· Unemployment data from Germany
· GDP figures from the UK
· CPI out of the Eurozone
· The G7 meeting
· Unemployment rate out of the Eurozone
· Consumer confidence out of the US
If you have currency transactions to do next week then Tuesday is likely to be the most volatile. It is of course Good Friday this week so the UK/Eurozone will be closed for business although the US will be trading as normal. To that end, we will have the NFP figure (Non-Farm payrolls) released so if you have a USD exposure please place market orders by close of business on Thursday.
If you have any questions please do let me know.
Have a great Easter Break.
Written by Liam Alexander