No doubt thoughts are wandering to mince pies, drinks and Christmas shopping that you promised yourself you would do well in advance, but haven’t. What should you be purchasing and when in the currency markets? Should presents be purchased before Christmas or in the January currency market sales? At the moment a star buy prior to Christmas is the US Dollar from GBP. We dropped into the 1.55s and have had a bounce back in trade this week. I don’t think it’ll last and it will be gone just as quick as your New Year resolutions and gym routine. The sign in the window says “hurry quick” and for once this sale should be swept up. My journalistic brilliance aside, GBP/USD is looking attractive. If you have an exposure between now and the end of the year please contact myself or one of the trading team to secure your USD. I would suggest working a straightforward SPOT deal as I think GBP/USD is toppish now and there won’t be much more left in it to work a market order. I think we’ll float in a 200 pip range between now and mid-January and if anything it’ll be to below 1.55. If you are starting to budget/cost yourself for the New Year what figure are you going to work off? I would suggest 1.55 may be a tad on the positive front, especially for Q1 and 1.50 may be a more realistic level to base yourself on. Please contact me to discuss implementing a sound strategy of Forward contracts/Spot/Market orders for your 2015 exposure on Cable.
Seller of USD back into GBP? If you remember 1.72 then you may want to lock in an amount of GBP from USD at current levels. You can’t go far wrong at current level. Historically anything under 1.60 to convert USD into GBP has been seen as ‘fair value’. Yes 1.53 and 1.48 would be much more attractive however by purchasing some of your GBP now you can average out your exchange rate by purchasing some now and should you think the rate will improve in Q1 you can secure more and therefore ‘average up’ your rate of exchange. Remember the old age adage ‘doing nothing is speculating’. Any questions please contact me directly.
What will Christmas bring GBP/EUR? It is hardly the most dynamic of individuals so I don’t think it will be receiving anything terribly exciting. Perhaps a wooden rocking horse would be apt. Goes back and forwards but doesn’t move anywhere. We’ll be range bound on GBP/EUR over the festive period I feel. If you have any EUR requirements over the coming weeks I would suggest locking in EUR on a SPOT deal. As mentioned numerous times before I think EUR will be under pressure Q1 ’15 and once EUR/USD breaks the support level of 1.20 (it will) then GBP/EUR will I think, have a go at breaking through resistance at 1.30 the figure. If you’re the optimistic sort please do consider placing market orders at 1.27 till end of year then look at higher levels going into the New Year. Please contact myself to implement market orders.
What do we have out the remainder of this week in terms of data? Not a lot. The main figure is US Retail Sales released today that will move the US Dollar. If you are a seller of USD look to work an order on the release of this data.
I will be changing the format of the reports slightly going into the New Year. I am not a touchy soul so please do get in touch and let me know what currencies you would like us to focus on, how often you would like to receive reports, what you find useful and informative (hopefully something!) and perhaps something we can improve upon? Obviously our annual forecasts have been pretty much correct so we can’t improve much on those (joking). I’m sure we can improve on some areas.
If you have any questions on upcoming currency movements please do let me or one of the team know.
Enjoy the rest of the week.
Written by Liam Alexander