GBP/USD has pushed up again overnight. The US Dollar remains under pressure with the Federal Reserve taking no action last week. Will this trend continue?
The Dollar has recently been susceptible to mixed economic data. The main event for the USD is as always in the first week of any month, Non-Farm payrolls. That will give us an idea on the US labour market and its relative health or otherwise. Will the NFP figure released reflect some new fangled early morning exercise class carrying people in wheelbarrows followed by a kale, spinach, macadamia nut smoothie or will it be a fry up and Bloody Mary inspired number? I’m going for the healthy option. I think we’ll see a better than expected release.
If you have USD and are considering converting some of exposure back to GBP I would suggest implementing market orders prior to Friday. I think this move higher in Cable may run out of steam shortly although if we continue to push back to 1.50 then we may see the range on GBP/USD move up a level.
However, I would caution if you are a USD buyer from GBP and are waiting for another leg higher before June 23rd I still expect a pullback on GBP regardless of whether the polls suggest that the chances of the UK leaving the EU are subsiding. GBP will lose some value prior to the referendum so if you can achieve anything above 1.45 to purchase USD from GBP consider locking in some of your exposure and start to ‘average up’ your rate of exchange. Also do consider ‘market orders’ prior to June as we are going to see a lot of volatility. If you look at the graphs below on GBP/USD and GBP/EUR you can see the movement.
Please contact a member of the Aston team to discuss your upcoming requirements.
GBP/EUR is as annoying as the latest trend for people to say “here’s some inspo”. If, like me, you had no idea what that means, apparently it is short for inspiration. It would be inspiring if people could actually write and finish words.
GBP/EUR has had a significant move higher in the past couple of weeks. The EUR is looking to stage a comeback. This has mainly been driven through EUR/USD pushing higher and threatening to settle above 1.15 the figure hence dragging GBP/EUR. First quarter growth out of the Eurozone was better than expected. The Greek breakthrough is yet to materialise and quite honestly it’s not worth delving into any great detail as I would bore myself writing about it after 5 years of mentioning and discussing Greece.
I think GBP may come under some further pressure with GDP growth dipping slightly to 0.4% from 0.6% in Q4 ’15.
If you have a requirement to convert EUR into GBP please do consider covering off a portion of your exposure at current levels with market orders to the downside on the remaining amount. Please contact my self or a member of the trading team to put something in place.
If you have any questions please do let me know.
Have a fantastic week.
Written by Liam Alexander