ACM Update 20 November 2017

The Euro has weakened this morning. German Coalition talks are progressing at the same pace as Mugabe takes to make a decision. Is the Euro now on the back foot after recent moves to the upside? Short-term, yes.

GBP/EUR has moved in a range from 1.11 to 1.13. Are we due to break out of this range? We may see a spike higher in the pair with a breakthrough of 1.13 although I think this will be short-lived. GDP data out of Germany last week proved stronger than expected and fundamentally the Eurozone is in a stronger position than the UK and the US. However, the Eurozone does have its own political problems to deal with in addition to Brexit negotiations so the single currency is still susceptible to volatility. 

You can view recent movements on GBP/EUR on the graph below –

GBPEUR 20-11-2017.png

If you have a requirement to purchase Euro’s from Sterling I would cover off some on a SPOT basis and then look to implement market orders at 1.13 the figure. I think this will be toppish for the pair for the remainder of the month.

Please contact the trading department to agree rates of exchange and also to structure market orders.

Sterling wise, it’s more of the same. A mixture of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ data with productivity up although the labour market is still struggling. This offset is going to continue that will see Sterling relatively directionless. December is when we’ll see either a move to the upside for GBP or a sharp fall. Will the UK settle the ‘divorce bill’ with the EU? If so, what will the final number be? Will the markets take this as a positive or a negative? If you have GBP exposure please make sure you have a plan in place going into December.

Prior to December the main event surrounding Sterling is the Autumn Budget Statement which is out on Wednesday. Will we see the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, increase public spending? Does the market take this as a positive or negative with the long held plan of cutting the deficit and ‘balancing the books’ a key goal? The Chancellor is rather hemmed in on most fronts so he’ll need to pull a colony of rabbits out of his hat to keep Sterling moving upwards.

On Sterling/Dollar, Donald Trump and US tax reform is stopping any sustained Dollar momentum. This has resulted in Cable (GBP/USD) moving through 1.32 the figure. As mentioned numerous times before, I expect Sterling/Dollar to finish the year around 1.32. If you can achieve above this level purchasing USD from Sterling I would look to lock some in. One less headache before the horror of Christmas shopping is upon us. 1.33 is toppish on Cable (GBP/USD) I feel with a few challenges of the 1.3320 level in the past. I don’t see us pushing much higher than this.

You can view recent movements on Sterling/Dollar on the graph below –

GBPUSD 20-11-2017.png

I expect GBP/USD to resume a slight downside bias in upcoming trade so if you are holding USD consider implementing market orders at 1.32 this week. Please contact the trading department to implement this.

This week, data wise, our friends across the pond are tucking into Turkey and pumpkin pie for Thanksgiving on Thursday so it will be a relatively light calendar in the US this week. We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday although that will be a non-event.

We have inflation report hearings out of the UK on Tuesday although I don’t expect any revelatory information. We are currently at 3% on inflation and whilst we might see a small tick higher I don’t see us pushing much further. We have GDP (YoY) and (QoQ) (Q3) released and expectations are for prints of 1.5% and 0.4% respectively.

December may prove to be the month that sets the tone for Q1 ‘18 with Brexit negotiations seemingly coming to a head. Please make sure you have discussed your strategy with us and also forward contracts going into next year to take risk off the table before you get stuck into the mince pies.

Any questions in the interim please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander       

ACM Update Tuesday 14th November

Brexit seems broken and the markets have finally woken up to the fact that Mrs May might not be able to keep her job, never mind bring home the bacon when it comes to the EU summit in December. Now I don’t know about you but I’m no vegan and when EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier suggests that we will have nowhere to put our Christmas cards if Mrs May’s cabinet collapses as hard as the negotiations, its not Bungling Boris or Environment Minister Michael “Et tu!?” Gove that I am looking towards for a rescue.

UK property prices are on their way down and according to credit card company Visa, British shoppers are being nifty and thrifty as we head towards the inevitable festive period evidencing the fifth fall in spending over the past six months, plunging 0.9% m/m and 2% y/y). Pay increases, where they even exist, cannot keep pace with inflation, which is higher mostly due to the weaker pound. The only good news about any of this for the UK is that if we have no Brussels we might have no brussels by Christmas.

 

GBP/USD

Cable is trading at 1.3090 at the time of writing, down from a high of 1.3180, which is already below the close at 1.3190. It had reached 1.3080 earlier in the day. 1.3080 still remains a line of support before 1.3030, which is the bottom of the range. Resistance is at 1.3180 and 1.3220.

On Wednesday this week UK Unemployment Rate and average earnings are released and the US gives Retail Sales and CPI for October. Thursday sees UK Retail Sales announced but market commentary has suggested that in the UK we could be looking down the barrel of relatively poor pre-Christmas sales.

 The slow pace of the weak and wobbly Brexit negotiations joins the slowing pace of the economy for the UK. While the US has their own troubles, the pound remains under increasing pressure. Clients with USD requirements might wish to take advantage of the recent moves by securing funds with a series of spot and forward contracts. 

GBP/USD movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBP/USD 1 Week

 

GBP/EUR

Tuesday will see the UK publishing RPI, CPI & PPI reports for October and the EU (and German) showing off their GDP for Q3. The President of the ECB is hosting a conference at the Bank’s base in Frankfurt. This particular event is a panel that also consists of other heavyweights: Fed Chair Yellen, BOJ Governor Kuroda and BOE Governor Carney. Any comments about their common problem, inflation will be eyed as hints about the next moves.

The pair is currently holding around the 1.1233 support. A clean break below this level could be indicative of a move lower to 1.1050. Short term there is a lot more for the UK to worry about than the EUR as the markets seem not to care too much about what happens in Europe. Clients selling GBP may want to hedge further downside risks by securing funds on spot or forward contracts after tomorrow.

GBP/EUR movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBP/EUR 1 Week

 

EUR/USD

This pair managed to tick up amid unremarkable data from Europe and some weakness in the US dollar. German factory orders beat expectations while industrial output dropped by more than had been anticipated. The EC’s forecasts were upgraded and Eurozone optimism remains strong, as if there really is “Nothing to see here!” in Catalonia. How can our European cousins be so cheerful? Well, the most basic fundamental they can rely on is a trade balance surplus driven by German exports. This means that when nothing happens, the single currency is bid and rises.

During this week, the pair also enjoyed the USD’s relative weakness, amid reports of a delay in the tax reform, Glorious Leaders Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un engaging in a thinly veiled exchange of insults that would have both of them thrown out of a weight watchers anger management meeting, Trump’s capitulations in his speech to the Chinese Secretariat and another cosy conversation with Putin at the ASEAN summit. GDP data could provide a “shot in the arm” to the EUR, as growth remains positive. The USD has already made its strides and political issues may pressure it beyond its ability to weather the storm.

Euro movement against the Dollar can be seen on the graph below:

EUR/USD 1 Week

 

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, I have to check on my potatoes and count my blessings. Have a great week.

 

Written by Damien Lipman

 

ACM Update Tuesday 7th November 2017

Remember, remember the fifth of November

Gunpowder, treason and plot

Then on the Seventh of November the BBC makes salacious attempts to undermine our monarch, amongst others, in suggesting the leaked “Paradise Papers” intimated some kind of nefarious activity in relation to offshore trusts and taxation. It is crucial that we point out that there is “no evidence” of any wrongdoing. In relation to the BBC…

I see no reason why gunpowder treason

Should ever be forgot….

….except that actually Guy Fawkes was an old boy from my school in York and by and large, at least locally, he is believed to have been framed. Now I can hear you scoff at the very idea but even that is no more explicable than the Bank of England voting 7-2 to increase its interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, to then have GBP value take an unexpected nose dive. The minority two members of the Court of Directors, who voted to keep rates on hold, believe that wage growth in the UK was/is too weak to justify a rate hike. Whilst that view was reflected by many economists, especially after the event, it was not the result predicted by market commentators. Overall, the hike was too dovish to keep the pound at the recent highs.

Guy Fawkes, Guy Fawkes, 'twas his intent

To blow up the King and the Parliament

UK production figures are due on Friday this week. If the data beats expectations this should provide some support for GBP. Overall, there is a lack of key data out of the US and Eurozone so this may provide little direction for USD and EUR.

GBP/USD

In the US, the Fed voted unanimously to keep their interest rate on hold at 1.25%, in line with expectations but with the door left wide open for a third rate hike in December, there is very strong support for this to be expected.

The US created 261,000 new jobs in October and whilst a strong rebound was anticipated following the two hurricanes that kept Americans away from work, the data was slightly below expectations. Non-farm payrolls for September were revised up from -33,000 to 18,000, suggesting the hurricane impact was not as damaging as once thought. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% however, earnings were also lower at 2.4%.

GBPUSD opened this week around the 1.31 mark and appears to be slowly climbing as the US opens.

GBP/USD movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBPUSD 06-11-2017.png

GBP/EUR

Three score barrels of powder below

Poor old England to overthrow

BoE Governor Mark Carney said the UK 'would be booming' if it wasn't for Brexit and continued with the bank's predictions for foreign investment in Britain was now 20% lower than they estimated in the month before the referendum. Poor old Britain indeed. He added that in the event of a bad Brexit deal, the bank would not be able to cut future interest rates because of that inflationary pressure. In the Eurozone the growth rate for Q3 came as a surprise and GDP rose to 0.6%, just below the revised 0.7% from the previous quarter but exceeding expectations. This pushed the annual rate to 2.5%, from 2.3% in comparison to Q3 last year. The unemployment rate fell below 9% for the first time since 2009, also beating forecasts. The positives were offset by disappointing inflation with CPI falling to 1.4%.

GBP/EUR movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBPEUR 06-11-2017.png

EUR/USD

Positive euro-zone growth continues and has reached 2.5% y/y in Q3 this year and unemployment rates also look good, dipping under 9%. The level of inflation is dropping once again: 1.4% in the headline and 0.9% in core CPI. Importantly the ongoing Catalan crisis has reached new lows with the jailing of most of the ousted regional government, but the markets and EUR value appear to ignore it. In the US, the Fed is set to raise rates in December, the last expected hike before Powell is due to enter his new job as Fed Chair. While the NFP report showed weak wage growth at 2.4%, the upbeat ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI kept the USD head above water after a fall off late in the week.

Euro movement against the Dollar can be seen on the graph below, giving pictorial evidence to the pair behaving like a firework that just won’t go off:

EURUSD 06-11-2017.png

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, I have to make some new “arrangements” and revise John Milton. Have a great week.

Written by Damien Lipman

ACM Update Monday 30 October 2017

This week is all about ‘Super Thursday’. For the first time in 10 years it looks like we may have a rise in interest rates. Will the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, follow through this time or will he disappoint the market (again)?

On balance, I think rates will be raised for the first time in 10 years by 25bps. I don’t think the BoE Governor can cry wolf again on a rate rise. It will likely be a 7-2 vote from the MPC in favour (Monetary Policy Committee). Any substantial upside move for Sterling will likely have been priced in already although it will move Sterling higher. It won’t be a unanimous vote which I think the first rate rise in a decade should be. Therein lies the rub. If the people voting on an interest rate rise can’t agree around the table then how does anyone else? If they can’t all agree, then a rate rise shouldn’t be forthcoming. I’d argue the UK economy isn’t exactly swinging from the rafters in terms of wage growth and productivity and a rate rise may damage a fragile ‘recovery’. Add in consumer debt, the small matter of inflation that is likely to climb slightly higher short term, uncertainty surrounding Brexit then you can argue we should hold off on a rate rise. However, as stated at the outset, I think the BoE will raise rates. Expect language of ‘slow’ and ‘steady’ to be the order of the day should rates move higher.

With all this uncertainty, if you have a Sterling requirement and FX exposure on either the buy or sell side please get in touch prior to Thursday.

You can view the fluctuations on GBP/EUR on the graph below –

GBPEUR 30-10-2017.png

Sterling/Euro is edging up slowly although there is no firm momentum behind the move. If you are a buyer of Euro’s from Sterling it may be worthwhile locking in some on a SPOT basis prior to Thursday. Please get in touch with the trading department for a rate of exchange. The single currency seems to have lost some of its lustre of late with EUR/USD coming off to around 1.16.

I would look at implementing market orders to take advantage on EUR/GBP and EUR/USD should there be a rebound.

Sterling/Dollar

Sterling/Dollar is struggling to gain a solid footing above 1.32. As discussed previously, we think Cable (GBP/USD) will end the year around 1.32 so I don’t see a huge change in pricing into the end of year. If you can achieve above 1.32 on GBP/USD I would take advantage at this level. We can implement a market order to execute at 1.32 for you on a GTC (Good till cancelled) basis.

If you are selling Dollars back to GBP or EUR I would take advantage of the recent moves and cover off at least a portion of your exposure on SPOT prior to Wednesday this week when we have some key data releases from the US.

The US Dollar may prove to be the strongest of the currencies going into Q1 next year with them ahead of the curve on interest rates, Q3 GDP coming in above expectations at 3% instead of the consensus estimate of 2.5%. Will GBP/USD move back below 1.30? Quite possibly. ‘Super Thursday’ in the UK will have a big say on the short-term direction as will the Federal Reserve meeting.

You can view the moves last week on Sterling/Dollar on the graph below –

GBPUSD 30-10-2017.png

We have a fairly heavy US data calendar this week with ISM Manufacturing (PMI) (October) and the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Statement and Interest rate decision released on Wednesday. We also have the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) figure released  on Friday rounding off the week.

If you have any questions, please do get in touch.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update Monday 23 October 2017

Storm Brian hit Britain and caused ‘devastation’ and ‘chaos’. Well, some wheelie bins were blown over. As usual, sensationalism is the order of the day. Brexit headlines will no doubt continue in the same vein for the rest of 2017 at least.

Deal or No deal? The Brexit tension builds like Noel Edmonds television show. It is unlikely there will be a resolution on transition terms before Christmas so Sterling is going to move up and down on the back of political commentary and point scoring.

Sterling/Euro

The ongoing Catalonia issue in the Eurozone isn’t having much of an impact on the single currency. In any case, it will be swept aside this week with market participants focusing on the ECB meeting. The ECB president, Mario Draghi, is likely to start the long awaited tapering of QE. This is a significant event and probably the most significant for the rest of 2017 in terms of market direction. Bond purchases are likely to fall from €60B to around €20-€30B Euro’s a month next year. Slow and steady she goes. That’ll shove the interest rate hike conversation in the Eurozone down the road perhaps to the following year. I expect the Euro to rise this week on the back of tapering. The single currency has been the star in FX markets this year. It has lost some of its momentum of late although it is still up 12% against the US Dollar this year. Against Sterling it has also fallen back slightly.

You can view the movements last week on GBP/EUR on the graph below –

GBPEUR 23-10-2017.png

I expect GBP/EUR to tick back down below 1.10 the figure again. The challenge for the ECB is containing the surge on the single currency. Look around. Sterling isn’t hurtling upwards anytime soon. The US Dollar? Yes, it may be easier now after the Senate vote to get fiscal stimulus into the economy although I don’t see the Dollar moving significantly and quickly in an upward direction. That leaves the Euro. The Eurozone economy is performing well. Political storms have subsided for now with closer integration the theme. It is a balancing act for Mario Draghi. He doesn’t want the single currency to rise too much as this will harm European exports and put the brakes on hitting their inflation target. Personally, I think the ECB and the Eurozone can handle a stronger Euro at present and I don’t think they’ll be overly concerned on the exchange rate for now.

If you are holding Euro’s and need to convert into Sterling or US Dollar please contact the trading department to discuss SPOT rates and also the implementation of market orders. There is likely to be some sharp movements around the ECB announcement so try and take advantage of moves in your favour.

Sterling is on a see-saw at present. Moves will be dictated by Brexit related news. The inflation figure out last week came in at 3%. This should, and I say should rather than will, translate to a rise in UK interest rates at the November meeting. Whilst I think rates should, on balance, rise, I’m not 100% convinced they will. Language from the Bank of England has been more dovish of late. Retail Sales also dropped more than expected in September. Consumer debt figures will likely ramp up further going into the festive season. I’m still negative on Sterling although a rise in UK interest rates and ‘good’ news on Brexit could see Sterling rally. However, I think this rally will fade rather quickly if it materializes.

Sterling/Dollar

It’s about as subdued as Storm Brian. It doesn’t really know what it wants to do. It whips up a frenzy and breezes up above 1.32 the figure then changes direction, shakes a few trees mildly aggressively, then comes down meekly to the 1.31’s and hovers there.

You can view the movements on Storm Brian, I mean GBP/USD, on the graph below –

GBPUSD 23-10-2017.png

As discussed last week, I don’t see any huge shift out of a tight trading range on Cable (Sterling/Dollar) for the rest of 2017. If you are a USD buyer consider locking in some at current rates and achieve over 1.30 going into end of year. Please contact the trading department for a rate of exchange. Have you looked at your Q1 ’18 requirements yet? It may be worthwhile having a conversation with us to start putting a plan in place for your currency requirements. Next year is likely to be even harder to predict with us closer to the proverbial cliff edge dependent on Brexit negotiations.

If you hold USD and need to convert back to GBP get in touch and we can stagger market orders for you to the downside to take advantage of moves.

Data out this week, we have GDP (QoQ) and (YoY) (Q3) figures. These are expected to come in at 0.3% and 1.4% respectively. As mentioned earlier, the ECB meeting and press conference is the main event of the week so please make sure you have a plan in place before Thursday. Rounding off the week we have GDP figures out of the US that will move the US Dollar.

If you have any questions please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update Monday 16th October 2017

Hurricane Ophelia is likely to cause some damage this week. The UK’s negotiating team will probably do more damage in Brussels though. We’re off to break the ‘deadlock’. We’re only over a year in on talks so that’s comforting to know. Out the traps early. The lot we’re negotiating with aren’t much better.

Where is Sterling likely to go against the Euro over the remaining months of 2017?

You can view the movements on the graph below last week –

GBPEUR 16-10-2017.png

We have a heavy data calendar from the UK this week. Retail Sales, employment and inflation data, and we also have the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney speaking. Interest rates are likely to crop up with a November rate hike of 25 bps looking extremely likely.

Sterling rallied towards the end of last week with optimism on Brexit. Really? I’m not that optimistic. Apparently there has been real signs of progress. Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator in chief, has said he’s open to a two year transition deal. Like Hurricane Ophelia, his view could change direction and course at any time. 

Will Sterling come off or rally against the Euro? We have inflation data out this week that is expected to print 3%. Some letter writing will need to be done from Mark Carney to the Chancellor, Philip Hammond. Should we see a print of 3% then this should give us a firm indication that interest rates will rise in November. This should translate into a push higher on Sterling. If you have a requirement to convert GBP into Euro please get in touch with our trading team. We can look at structuring market orders for you to take advantage of any spikes in the market. With politics back in vogue in the Eurozone, from Germany to Catalonia and Spain, the Euro may see some further pressure. Please contact us to discuss your upcoming requirements to mitigate your currency risk.

Whenever there is such a thing as a ‘sure thing’ it often turns out to be not a sure thing. Everyone is now pricing in Sterling/Euro to rocket higher. Will it? People have been saying that all year. I am still Sterling negative in the run up to Christmas. Dear lord, I mentioned Christmas. Brexit and UK politics are going to hinder Sterling. Whilst interest rates are likely to rise UK productivity figures certainly aren’t. The UK is going to be in for a period of low growth for at least another 12-24 months. Sterling is going to rally on the back of some positive data news stories although I expect the trends to be short-lived. If you are a seller of Euro’s against GBP firstly take advantage of where rates are now and lock in some on SPOT. Might Sterling/Euro move lower? Absolutely. However, lock in some now and then you give yourself a price point to work from. Please contact the trading department for a rate of exchange. We can then discuss a strategy with you for your remaining amount of exposure over the next few months.

Sterling/Dollar?

We said at the beginning of the year that we expected Cable (GBP/USD) to finish around 1.32 end of year and we maintain that forecast. The Dollar has been under a little pressure with the FOMC being slightly dovish. A December rate hike is still likely although inflation is proving a thorn in the Fed Chairpersons side. I would expect the US Dollar to strengthen slightly going into year end from current levels although not by much.

You can view the movements on GBP/USD last week on the graph below –

GBPUSD 16-10-2017.png

If you are USD buyer from Sterling cover off a significant amount at current levels. I don’t see it moving much higher. Please contact the trading department for a SPOT rate. I expect Sterling to drift lower so that will bring the Cable (GBP/USD) rate down. If you hold USD I would look at staggering market orders to the downside to take advantage of moves lower. Please contact the trading department to discuss appropriate levels to aim for.

Every week now in currency markets there are large moves rather than the small price movements we used to see. Please make sure you have a plan in place to negate these shifts. Movements of 1% are now common and that can have a significant bearing on your annual FX rate.

If you have any questions please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update Monday 9th October 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a disastrous Tory Party Conference speech last Wednesday when she was handed a “joke” P45; seemed to swallow a fly, refrained from swallowing a spider to catch the fly but did suffer a coughing fit so violent that it literally sent one of the last remaining flying F’s off the wall!

Now the writing may actually be on the wall for our Foreign Secretary and occasional author, Boris Johnston, instead of the PM. Talk of a Cabinet reshuffle can be heard around Westminster. The next round of P45’s may be no joke for GBP value which fell amid uncertainty for this UK government’s future but looks like it is making a slight comeback against USD and EUR as we get into this week. 

GBP/USD

The US jobs report on Friday was mixed. Non-farm payrolls fell by 33,000, the first decline in seven years, reflecting the effects of multiple extreme weather systems. However, this was countered by other encouraging reports such as the unemployment rate falling from 4.4% down to 4.2% and average earnings jumped by 0.4% to 2.9% surpassing expectations.

Despite the uptick in GBP value against USD today, possibly caused by the US having a public holiday today and speculators may be hoping to pick up GBP at a slight discount after a steep drop last week, we are likely to see a further push against GBP by USD as the week progresses. Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning is likely to be busy for GBP as both Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures are due for release at 0930hrs, along with trade balance figures. This will likely set conditions for how the rest of the week will progress.

GBP/USD movement can be seen on the graph below, now that the graph machine is fixed:

GBPUSD 09-10-2017.png

GBP/EUR

Whilst Theresa May might be trying to build a country that works for everyone, little was reported on what was said in relation to the policy initiatives she announced on housing, organ donation and energy prices. The Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, appeared to have to tell Bo Jo that he needed to stand and support his boss. He did as he was told in that instance but for how much longer can he hold on to his position? Perhaps only for as long as he backs off from calls for the PM’s resignation. The politically-driven GBP might take comfort from signs that Theresa May is likely to stay on as leader of the Conservative Party, at least for now.

 

The coming week is a key time for Brexit negotiations as it will be the last week of talks before the EU summit to determine whether sufficient progress has been made to move onto Phase Two. The consensus expectation is that progress will not be judged sufficient to move on but it remains to be seen how real Brexit Fatigue is and how much the market will have already priced in the outcomes.

GBP/EUR movement can be seen on the graph below:

EUR/USD

 

EUR/USD was under pressure once again, dropping for the second week in a row showing how things don’t matter until they suddenly start to matter and cause generates effect. This could be evidenced by the market recently having to digest the political events surrounding Catalonia and the continuing political stand-off. In addition, dovish comments from the ECB weighed on the common currency. In the US, data has been mostly positive. The NFP was “distorted” due to the hurricanes but still consisted of higher wages. The odds for a rate hike in December remain very high.

 

What little Euro movement there has been against the Dollar can be seen on the graph below:

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Have a great week.

Written by Damien Lipman

ACM Update Monday 2nd October 2017

Several international treasures have been lost this last week. With the passing of Hugh Heffner on one side of the Atlantic, and actress Liz “Vera Duckworth” Dawn over here in the UK, we should have known that this was going to be a tough weekend.

At home, our government is still in a quiet crisis, with PM Theresa May facing a potential leadership challenge as Foreign Minister Boris Johnson seems to be gaining momentum and undermining the PM. Concurrently Stateside, USD is on the rise on hopes that tax reform will pass but the mood in markets has generally deteriorated following violence in Catalonia and the shooting in Las Vegas which has left more than 50 dead and hundreds wounded.

GBP/USD

Weak UK manufacturing data (Purchasing Managers Index) has fallen short of expectations and GBP is finding it hard to hold onto the gains made last week against USD. UK GDP was downgraded on the annual level and other figures, such as the current account, fell short of our Chancellor’s hopes and dreams. The US dollar gained some ground on hopes for a tax reform (no matter what you think of it), among other reasons. Contrary to the UK, US GDP was upgraded and US manufacturing is showing some promise.

This week, Non-Farm Payrolls (published Friday) will be the key data for this currency pair. In the meantime, please consider taking advantage of remaining GBP value if you are buying USD. Get in touch with us to discuss reducing your exposure risk by fixing forward rates. Please be also be prepared for GBP to lose further ground as a potential rate hike by the BoE in November becomes less likely, although it is not yet beyond the realms of possibility.

GBP/EUR

Generally speaking if the same events were to occur in London and at the centre of Europe, the Euro could be expected to suffer less and right now it really is. Despite Merkle’s loosening of power in Germany there is a tangible sense of hope with a reshuffle at the finance ministry. Violence and unrest after an attempt at a referendum for independence by the Catalans is causing a drop in market confidence in Spain and that is spreading. Yet GBP has slipped against EUR. Realistically further losses can be expected this week but UK Services PMI out on Wednesday morning could possibly bring some better news and a possible boost back or temporary halt in decline.

Please mitigate further downside risk to GBP value and consider taking a view with spot trades in the short term. The longer term view is that GBP may yet still have far to fall before the year end, despite the withdrawal away from suggestions of parity by most commentators.

EUR/USD

After several months of European strength and stability (much to Theresa May’s chagrin) there now follows what I like to call “quantative queasing”. EUR has lost value against USD now and early Q4 looks to be full of political uncertainty. Chancellor Merkel has a weaker hold over Germany’s government and is even less likely now to be capable of instigating any significant reform for the Euro Zone. Weakened inflation figures may further delay QE tapering and subdue the Euro. On the other side, in the US, there are glimmers of stability and positivity which will contribute to an increase in USD relative value.

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you.

Written by Damien Lipman

 

ACM Update 25 September

Politics rather than economic fundamentals continue to drive movements in currency markets. Theresa May’s ‘renaissance’ speech in Florence renewed about as much interest as a UK savings account. Merkel’s election ‘victory’ has put European politics back in the headlines after a period of oh, 4 months of stability. At least we can count on Trump to pick a fight with the entire NFL and provide continuity to the world.

Sterling/Euro

Has the tide turned on Sterling/Euro? After Theresa May spoke on Friday Sterling came under some pressure. It was a very political speech in Florence - lots of words without actually saying anything. The UK then had its Credit rating downgraded by the rating agency Moody’s to Aa2 from Aa1. They reasoned that there would be challenging times ahead for public finances with Brexit, easing of austerity measures and slower growth in the coming years. We dipped under 1.13 after a week of gains for Sterling to largely settle around where we started. We then had the German election result on Sunday. The single currency was sold off overnight in the Asian session.

Is the Euro now on the back foot? EUR/USD has come off from levels above 1.20 to break through 1.19 this morning. We had IFO figures out of Germany today that saw manufacturers ramped up their investment. However, this fell short of expected figures hence the dip. Couple this with the German election result and the extreme right gaining more seats than expected and the Euro is under pressure. Are we in for sudden change in direction for GBP/EUR? Unlikely. We’ll likely see Sterling take a breather after its recent climb higher. We have a week of relatively light data releases although heavy on Central Bankers. The ECB are up today with Mario Draghi speaking. If you have a requirement to purchase Euro’s from Sterling it may be worthwhile locking in some at current SPOT rates. Remember, we were under 1.09 only a couple of weeks ago. Please contact the trading department for a rate of exchange.

Despite the German elections and the upcoming Italian elections I still see the Euro gaining further ground in Q4. I expect the ECB to commence tapering of QE as the economy is in a good enough position to warrant it. Sterling has gained disproportionately on the news that the UK will raise rates. You would expect the Bank of England Governor to follow through this time. If he doesn’t? Expect Sterling to come off quite substantially. Consumer debt is also rearing its head more and more each month and will be more of a news story in the coming months.

If you have a requirement to convert Euro’s into GBP I would expect further dips and us to trade back below 1.10 again. If you would like to implement market orders please contact me directly or the Trading department and we can look to ‘average up’ your rate of exchange through staggered market orders.

Sterling/Dollar

Cable (GBP/USD) hit the giddy heights of 1.36 in recent trade. If you are buyer of USD from GBP consider locking some in at current SPOT levels. We are around the best levels since last year. If you have capacity it may be worth covering off some USD on a 3 month Forward Contract that will see you out until the end of 2017. If you would like Forward Contract pricing please contact the trading department.

As detailed above I still see Sterling under pressure in Q4. I don’t see any miracle cure on the horizon that is going to change that. The Dollar is likely to strengthen further with a US rate hike due in December so I see Sterling/Dollar heading back towards the 1.30 mark. At the beginning of the year we forecasted GBP/USD to finish around 1.32 and I don’t think we’ll be far off that. Perhaps slightly lower.

We have the Federal Reserve Chairperson, Janet Yellen, speaking tomorrow that will give us further clues on the health of the US economy. The only data of note out from the US this week is GDP (Annualized) Q2 on Thursday.

I expect currencies to be largely range bound this week. Although, the term ‘range bound’ used to indicate tight price movements and a ‘range’ now can be anything from 0.5-1% price movements on an intraday basis. Central Bankers will likely dictate the direction of currencies this week.

Q4

Going into the last week of Q3 please do get in touch to start planning a strategy for the remainder of the year. G10 currencies are likely to continue to have large price movements so make sure you are protected from fluctuations by having a plan in place.

Any questions do get in touch.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update 18 September

Make no mistake, last week was nothing if not eventful both economically and politically. The thankfully averted tragedy in London was a shock for all and a poignant reminder of the hard work undertaken by our security services. At the same time we had yet another shot from the “Rocket Man” in North Korea, showing that politics really can upstage economics.

GBP continued to make very significant gains on USD up beyond 1.35 and a little more on EUR. With improvements in both the US and Europe, despite massive weather systems and Kim Jung Un’s best efforts elsewhere, EUR/USD has remained relatively steady.

GBP/USD

Inflation in the UK reported as rising by more than expected to 2.9% in August, up 0.3% from the previous month and BoE Governor Carney is on record now as being more hawkish with an interest rate hike likely “in the coming months”. This immediately surged GBP value up, up and away to 1.33. Even the sluggish pace of wage rises at 2.1% y/y and the rally from USD elsewhere, did not halt cable’s rise.

Please consider taking advantage of current GBP value if you are buying USD and get in touch with us to discuss fixing forward rates. Please contact the trading team to implement these. We have seen what can happen when the markets get over enthused by BoE hawkishness.

GBP/EUR

UK core CPI figures and the interest rate announcement holding steady pushed GBP beyond the 1.11 all the way to an apparently steady hold now at around 1.133. Last week the vote in Parliament backed the EU Withdrawal Bill which is to convert EU legislation into UK law in preparation for the exit in 2019. The realisation that a cliff edge Brexit scenario is already priced in to a great degree will cause traders to exit their bearish Sterling positions.

UK retail sales on Wednesday this week will be in focus as markets look to see how higher inflation effected consumer spending in August. If you are buying EUR from GBP this week you may wish to take advantage of the current value before announcements on Wednesday and Thursday. Please get in touch with us to mitigate your risk exposure. The longer term view is that GBP may yet still have far to fall before the year end, despite the corrections of major banks away from parity.

EUR/USD

German elections are the only foreseeable major event looking likely to bring uncertainty to the EUR for now. EUR/USD has started the week in a stable manner, around 1.1940. Resistance is clear at the round number of 1.20. Further support is at 1.1870, a level the pair fell to last week.

EUR initially ignored Draghi’s complaints about the exchange rate. EUR/USD reached new highs, flirting with 1.21. However, the momentum came out of the move, aided by a recovery of the US dollar. European data continued its upbeat trend, with employment rising by 0.4%, better than expected. However, the recovery of the USD does not necessarily spell doom for the EUR. A combination of political and geopolitical stability boosted USD value but after failing to push down EUR value last week, Mario Draghi is likely to be more cheerful now.

The big event of the week is the decision of the Federal Reserve; Yellen and her colleagues are expected to begin reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, and the focus will be on the plans for the next rate hikes. While the economic situation in Europe continues looking good, things in the US have improved as well. This includes a better political environment, hopes for a tax reform and with renewed optimism about a rate hike from the Fed, there is little to choose between them this week.

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, I am going back to the paddle shop again, just in case! Have a great week.

Written by Damien Lipman

 

ACM Update 11 September 2017

Whether the weather be fine, Or whether the weather be not,

Whether the weather be cold, Or whether the weather be hot,

We'll weather the weather, Whatever the weather,

Whether we like it or not!

We take weather seriously here at Aston Currency and it is necessary to remember that our American cousins are suffering on a number of fronts, not least because today is the 16th anniversary of 9/11. Wild fires are raging across the West and the Southern States have had to bear the brunt of Harvey, the record breaking and ferocious Irma and they still have Jose and Katia to come. The devastation is incomparable and almost absolute in certain areas of the Caribbean. The only positive to draw from any of it is that the storm winds are actually clearing the smoke as they blow across the country.

In other news, there was no missile test/launch on the 69th anniversary of North Korea’s National Founding Day, as anticipated. Instead Kim Jong Un hosted a massive celebration to congratulate his nuclear scientists and technicians instead, whilst facing significantly increased sanctions and predictably suggesting his own reprisals. Clearly he was happy with his shiny peanut, despite the fact he couldn’t eat it.

GBP begins the week making gains on USD and EUR but it may not last for long.

GBP/USD

Cable has seen an embattled GBP work hard to take advantage of hints for a softer Brexit against the misery of the US’s extreme weather. Data from the UK last week reported that the trade deficit is narrowing and PMIs are on target. The upcoming week features top-tier inflation (Tuesday a.m.) and jobs indicators (Wednesday a.m.), as well as the BOE decision on Thursday for interest rates. Even with signs of an economic slowdown, there may be hints for the BOE raising rates despite the still-high inflation and the booming credit market. The Monetary Policy Committee probably prefers a higher exchange rate to lower inflation but possibly won’t accompany this desire with an interest rate increase. All of this will be followed up on Friday with the BOE Quarterly Bulletin, detailing monetary policy operations and current market conditions.

The UK economy may not be looking its best but GBP will likely remain resilient against a weaker USD caused by very bad weather, unfortunate politics and continuing uncertainty from Korea. Buying USD from Sterling? Try and take advantage of any change in the strength of GBP through utilising market orders. You can contact the trading team to implement these.

GBP/USD movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBP/USD 1 Week

GBP/EUR

This week there will be focus on GBP with a deluge of data out of the UK. Inflation is expected to tick back up to 2.8%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain on hold at the historic lows of 4.4% with earnings also creeping up to 2.3% (including bonuses). On Thursday the central bank should keep policy on hold and voting is expected to show a 6-2 split in favour of keeping rates unchanged. Overall, we could see Sterling continue to edge higher this week, however, the key parliamentary vote on the Brexit bill today could cause some volatility. Parliament is expected to vote in favour of the bill but a vote against would continue to add to the uncertainty of Brexit and further undermine GBP value. Clients selling Sterling should cover a portion at the current levels with orders to the upside for the coming weeks.

GBP/EUR movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBP/EUR 1 Week

EUR/USD

Draghi’s comments at the ECB avoided the decision on Quantative Easing (QE) last Thursday announcing only “preliminary discussions”, meaning we are likely to now see QE tapering in October. Having blamed the strong EUR for almost everything that could go wrong for Europe but the weather, the markets were unconvinced and EUR got even stronger. With large swathes of the US either on fire or underwater, worries about the hurricanes, wildfires, the retirement of the Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and lower US bond yields all contributed towards depressing USD.

Euro movement against the Dollar can be seen on the graph below:

EUR/USD 1 Week

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, I am heading to the paddle store to stock up before any of you get to the proverbial creek. Have a great week.

Written by Damien Lipman

ACM Update 4 September 2017

Following a hydrogen (nuclear) bomb test underground in North Korea, US Defence Secretary General Mattis literally rattled his sabre and Trump has suggested that the United States might embargo all trade with countries that do business with North Korea. Interestingly that list includes a number of otherwise allied trading partners such as China, India, Philippines, Taiwan, France, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Turkey, Egypt, Chile and keepers of the shiny orb Saudi Arabia. There’s not a huge amount to joke about this week but looking for positives, JPY and gold (haven assets) have rallied over the weekend and this morning…. which is nice.

In summary for today, USD has weakened against all standard basket currencies, the EUR is up and GBP is flat. This week, other than the obvious, the biggest event is likely to be the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. 

GBP/USD

GBP/USD managed to recover on hopes for a softer Brexit and mixed movements in the US. The UK’s Services PMI (Tuesday morning) and trade balance (Friday) stand out as the two biggest data influencers in the first full week of September after the US jobs report missed expectations creating only 156,000 jobs in August compared to the 180,000 expected. The US unemployment rate pushed back up to 4.4% as the number of unemployed stood at 7.1 million. 

Markets were expecting unemployment to remain unchanged at 4.3%. A slowing labour markets and concerns over Trump will continue to dampen investor’s hopes of a US interest rate rise in December so you have a case of Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum to keep USD and GBP relatively range bound.

The slow pace of the weak and wobbly Brexit negotiations joins the slow pace of the economy for the UK. While the US economy has its own troubles, the pound remains under immense pressure. Clients with USD requirements might wish to take advantage of the recent moves by securing funds with a series of spot and forward contracts.

GBP/USD movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBP/EUR

The only good bit of news coming out of the UK this week that might overshadow the terrible cricket results is that The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are expecting their third child and heir to the throne. It is unlikely to be enough to prevent further losses for GBP against EUR.

The EUR uptrend is largely justified as the euro-zone largely enjoys stable politics, a central bank that is moving towards the exits (even if gradually) and robust growth. The UK is suffering from continuing Brexit woes and the Commons is set to debate the government's Brexit repeal bill on Thursday which can only lead to greater uncertainty. On that, I am uncertain if it if possible to reach peak uncertainty or if it is a circular concept where one can be so uncertain that there evolves other certainties….. anyway, the US suffers from bad politics, slowing growth and a central bank that is hesitating as well so it will be hard for Draghi to convince us that he is dovish when everything seems to be on the right track for the EUR.

Clients selling GBP may want to hedge further downside risks by securing funds on spot or forward contracts before Thursday morning.

 GBP/EUR movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBPEUR 04-09-2017.png

EUR/USD

The Jackson Hole Symposium pushed EUR/USD higher ultimately making a short-lived breakthrough above 1.20. Reports that the ECB does not like the current strength of the currency outweighed higher inflation in the euro-zone. The downfall was also driven by a stronger US dollar. Apart from a necessary correction, USD enjoyed positive economic data: GDP growth came out at the robust level of 3% and other data was also supportive.

Thursday is a big deal with expectations of the ECB possibly announcing the tapering of Quantative Easing and if so, by how much? These are the open questions that keep EUR/USD on the edge. We know that the ECB will decide something this autumn because of ECB President Mario Draghi’s previous statements. The bond-buying scheme currently consists of EUR60bn euros per month until the end of 2017 and the big question is for the future of the program in early 2018. Will they make another reduction of EUR20bn but continue the program for longer? Or will they reduce the scale on a monthly basis and end it soon? The ECB could also delay the decision to the October meeting, but making a decision now makes more sense.

Euro movement against the Dollar can be seen on the graph below:

EURUSD 04-09-2017.png

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, I have to build a nuclear winter proof ark. Have a great week.

 

Written by Damien Lipman

 

ACM Update 29 August 2017

EUR/USD has broken through the psychological level of 1.20 the figure. Does the Euro juggernaut continue climbing higher? Or will the single currency eventually get outmaneuvered by the US Dollar and brought down to earth like Conor McGregor was at the weekend?

Euro momentum continues. After speeches by the ECB president, Mario Draghi, and the Federal Reserve Chairperson, Janet Yellen, at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, EUR/USD broke through 1.1830 and then closed out the week a little above 1.1920. In yesterday’s trading we reached 1.1975 and in the overnight Asian session we finally broke through 1.20 the figure.

You can view the movements on EUR/USD on the graph below –

The move higher is a mixture of Euro strength and also Dollar weakness. I don’t see much on the horizon to change the general uptrend for the single currency against the dollar. The only saving grace will be intervention by the ECB whom determine the currency is getting too strong and talk it down. Alternatively, the US sorts itself out with regard to the upcoming debt ceiling and tax reform issues that will likely give the dollar some impetus. For now, expect the Euro to continue to strengthen. Mario Draghi had an opportunity last week to talk down the Euro and didn’t. I think the ECB are comfortable with the strength of the currency for the first time in a long time. Political risk may come back into the fray now the summer is coming to an end although for now expect further Euro strength.

If you have a requirement to convert Euro’s into US Dollars take advantage of the recent move higher. Please contact the trading department to lock in a rate of exchange. We are at 2 ½ year highs on EUR/USD.

Sterling/Euro

What does this Euro momentum mean for Sterling/Euro? It is tin hat time for GBP/EUR. Do I see anything on the horizon that will dramatically alter the trend lower? At this point, no. Is Parity on Sterling/Euro now a possibility? Yes. If you are a Euro buyer from Sterling you need to start preparing for this whether it materialises or not. Please contact the trading department to discuss your individual requirements. It might not happen but as I’m sure you’re tired of me saying, ‘doing nothing is speculating’. As discussed in previous reports I expected Euro to be the golden child of markets and I don’t see this ending at present. On Sterling, I remain negative. We have inflation report hearings out of the UK on Wednesday. Economic data will prove important although politics, posturing and positioning by the UK Government will likely determine Sterling direction. The UK Government need to play a winning hand at the table on negotiations soon or we’re going to see Sterling fall further.

We have inflation data out of the Eurozone in the form of preliminary CPI (YoY) and (MoM) and employment data out of Germany on Thursday. Other than these releases we are relatively data light from Europe this week.

If you hold Euro’s and need to convert into GBP consider covering off a substantial amount of your exposure at current levels. Please contact the trading department for a SPOT price and to implement market orders for any further moves lower.

You can view the movements on GBP/EUR on the graph below.

Sterling/US Dollar

Will we break through 1.30 the figure or pullback from current levels if the US resolves the debt ceiling and tax reform issues?

If you’re a buyer of USD from GBP consider market orders at 1.30. Please contact the trading department to implement these. As mentioned in previous reports I don’t see huge variance in Cable (GBP/USD) to the end of the year. I think we’re toppish at 1.33 so if you can achieve 1.30 to buy USD I would look at covering off a sizeable portion of your exposure to de-risk things to the end of the year. The trading department can provide you pricing on Forward contracts out till end of December 2017.

You can view the movements on Cable (Sterling/Dollar) on the graph below –

If you have a requirement to sell USD back to GBP then look to stagger market orders to the downside. I would expect a reversal of the recent move higher with some Sterling weakness to come. We also have some important data out of the US this week in the form of employment data and the NFP (Non-Farm payroll report) that is released on Friday.

The summer and sangria is about to end for another year. Liquidity, traders and investors will be fully back to the table from next week. Expect market movements, German elections, UK/EU negotiations, the Conservative party conference, debt ceiling and tax reform issues in the US, North Korea, safe havens, and monetary normalisation all to play a substantial part from September onwards in currency markets. These events and issues will all lead to volatility. Make sure you have a plan in place and have spoken with a member of the Aston team to implement a strategy to de-risk your position and take advantage of any moves higher in your favour.

If you have any questions on the above please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update 21 August 2017

“When will I, will I, be famous”. Yep, the 80’s band Bros has made a comeback folks. We have the Jackson Hole Symposium this week in Wyoming where the ECB President, Mario Draghi, will be the star of the show. Perhaps Draghi will respond to questions on the value of the Euro and monetary normalisation with a mixture of evasive guile using the following lyrics from the aforementioned hit “I can’t answer that, I can’t answer that”.

Sterling/Euro

We have traded under 1.0950 on Sterling/Euro. A seven year low. Do you hold Euros? If so, lock in 50% of your exposure back to Sterling on SPOT this week. Why? Firstly, it de-risks your position and you can then take a view on the remaining 50% next week. The two questions I alluded to above will come into focus this week. The value and strength of the single currency and a word that is going to be used more and more in the coming months; normalisation.

Is the Euro overvalued or undervalued against Sterling and the US Dollar? Largely, this is going to be down to Mario Draghi, the ECB president, to determine when he speaks on Friday. Does he think that the Euro’s 10% gain against the Dollar is overdone and is likely to be a drag on inflation and thus damage exports? Damaging exports will then scale back growth in the Eurozone. If growth is scaled back then the case for not tapering QE remains. I don’t think he will hint that the Euro is too strong this week. I expect the Euro to get another shot in the arm and drive higher. Why? The Eurozone strength is now at a stage where they have to join the party the Federal Reserve started and commence scaling back the life support that QE (Quantitative easing) provided during the financial crisis. I expect a tapering of the €60B monthly bond purchases in the coming months. It is a huge balancing act for Mario Draghi and he has to get the timing right. I believe they will look at the picture and determine now is the time to act. That’s why I think the probability of Sterling/Euro hitting parity is a lot higher than perhaps the market has priced in yet.

You can view the downside moves on Sterling/Euro last week on the graph below –

GBP/EUR 1 Week

I expect Euro strength to continue as briefly opined above. We have a fairly light week in terms of data with the ZEW Survey (sentiment) released on Tuesday being one of note. Other than that expect the end of the week and Draghi to drive the next move in markets.

The case for Sterling rising like the recent price of salmon? Not a strong one. Yes, the unemployment rate fell, and wages surprised by coming in at 2.1% and exports are rising due to the weakness of Sterling, However, wages aren’t rising in line with inflation and I don’t expect them to catch up anytime soon. This is going to lead to more consumers seeking credit from Banks, which is now hitting worrying levels. I expect things to get slightly worse before they improve for the UK. I expect grown up thinking to prevail and the UK and EU will end up with some form of a transition arrangement.

However, short-term I expect Sterling to suffer further.

If you have a requirement to purchase Euros from Sterling I would consider locking in some at current levels to protect yourself from further pain. Please contact the trading department or me directly for rates of exchange and levels to aim for.

Sterling/Dollar

As suggested a couple of weeks back I expected Cable (GBP/USD) to rally from 1.30 the figure to around 1.32 with 1.33 being toppish. I expected a retracement from these levels and so it has proved. Sterling/Dollar has continued the downside move and is now trading in the mid-1.28s. As discussed previously, I don’t see Sterling/Dollar moving hugely higher this year. If you can achieve 1.30 to purchase US Dollars I would lock in a 3-6 month forward. Please get in touch and we can structure this for you.

You can view movements on Cable (GBP/USD) on the graph below –

GBP/USD 1 Week

If you are a seller of USD back to GBP and can lock in under 1.30 start to aggregate your FX rate from that point and look to improve your rate over the coming months. You can do this by utilising market orders at certain price points. Our trading department can provide you with technical indicators and levels that will give you the best opportunity to achieve the best rate at the best possible time.

The main data of note out of the UK this week that is likely to move Sterling is the Inflation Report Hearings out on Wednesday and the second Q2 GDP estimate. If you have Sterling exposure make sure you have a strategy in place prior to Wednesday to mitigate your risk.

The US Dollar and Federal Reserve is playing second fiddle to the Euro and the ECB at present. With politics and economics more entwined than ever this can change extremely quickly.

Make sure you have had a discussion with us to implement a plan for your FX requirements.

Any questions let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update 14 August 2017

Sterling/Euro has broken through 1.10. The move has happened a few weeks ahead of my forecast of the end of August. Where now for GBP/EUR? 1.05? Parity? Below parity? It will be as interesting to see as Jacob Rees ‘Moggster’ Mogg as PM.

You can view the movements on Sterling/Euro last week on the graph below –

EUR/USD is battling with the 1.18 level. I think it is a matter of time before we push through the psychological level of 1.20. I don’t see anything that will hold back the Euro at present. Should we see the move in EUR/USD this is going to impact Sterling/Euro to the downside. I have been Sterling negative for most of this year and I don’t see anything on the horizon to alter this view. We have inflation data out of the UK tomorrow in the form of CPI (YoY) (Jul). Consensus estimate is for a print of 2.7% against the previous figure of 2.6%. I expect this figure to come in on expectations tomorrow. We will see a gradual run up in inflation to the 3% mark this year. Wage growth, or the lack of it, will continue to be a thorn in the side for people. With inflation rising this is going to have consumers reining in their spending. Alarm bells are already starting to ring on borrowing levels and credit. With ‘Brexit’ only just beginning in earnest then Sterling is going to suffer. I think we can wave goodbye to any talk of an interest rate rise in 2017 now.

So, what should you do if you’re a buyer of Euros from Sterling? We can all sit here and say GBP/EUR should be trading higher. It isn’t. The giddy heights of 1.18 seem a distant memory. 1.40 on Sterling/Euro seems like a previous century. We have seen a slide where we are now discussing parity as a distinct possibility. Can you afford to trade at 1:1? Has parity ever happened before? No. I have never thought parity was a realistic level. However, I think the case for parity is now a salient one.

If you have requirements to purchase Euro’s please contact the Trading department or speak with me directly. We will put a strategy in place for you over the coming months to de-risk your position. Could we see some sharp upside intraday movements on the back of positive data releases this week for Sterling? Possibly. It may be worthwhile implementing a market order to take advantage of spikes higher. Should these upside movements occur I don’t think they’ll hang around for too long. If you have a market order in place with us your trade will be executed automatically for you should your rate be achieved. Please contact myself or the Trading department to discuss appropriate levels to aim for.

Are you holding Euro’s at present? Take advantage of the current levels on a SPOT basis or lock in a sizeable portion on a 3 month forward back to Sterling. I do think the rate will move further in your favour although take some risk off the table and lock in a sizeable amount now. Please contact the Trading department to discuss. There are quite a few data releases that may move the Euro this week. We have preliminary GDP (QoQ) and (YoY) (Q2) released with inflation data out in the form of CPI (YoY) (Jul). We also have the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts release.

 

Sterling/Dollar

We are hovering around 1.30 the figure without any clear direction at present. Last week Sterling/Dollar traded in its tightest range for three years.

You can view the movements on Cable (GBP/USD) on the graph below –

 

We have more data releases this week so I expect some volatility to return. traders and investors should be coming back to the party after a few weeks away. This week we have Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) out of the US in addition to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes on Wednesday evening (UK time). With Geopolitical tensions showing no signs of abating with North Korea still being, well, North Korea, the dollar is likely to fluctuate. Sterling has come off the highs of around 1.32 in recent weeks and I would expect a move back to the 1.28s in upcoming trade. If you are a USD buyer from Sterling do consider locking in some of your exposure at current levels. Please contact me or the Trading department for a rate of exchange.

If you hold USD consider market orders to the downside to take advantage of any Sterling weakness.

September is starting to come into focus and the lull of August will soon be a distant memory. Make sure you have discussed a strategy for the remainder of the year with us. Movements will likely be a lot more severe from September through to the end of the year.

Any questions please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

 

ACM Update 7 August 2017

Sterling has crashed into rocks like the ship in Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night. Will the themes of confusion and tragic comedy apply to Sterling for the rest of the year? Or will Sterling get a performance enhancing ‘boost’ like Justin Gatlin has had over the years?

Sterling/Euro

I forecasted Sterling/Euro being under 1.10 by the end of August. I don’t see anything over the coming weeks to change my forecast. Indeed, we may get there sooner than the end of the month. The move in GBP/EUR has largely been down to Euro strength. However, I think we’re due a bout of Sterling weakness that will likely drag the pair lower. If the EUR/USD pair can consolidate above 1.18 the figure and indeed break through 1.19 with a rally to the psychological level of 1.20 then we’ll see GBP/EUR under 1.10 sooner than the end of August.

You can view the movements on Sterling/Euro last week on the graph below –

GBP/EUR 1 Week

Why do I think Sterling is going to be on the ropes? I can’t answer this question without mentioning ‘Brexit’. I think it is fairly obvious to everyone by now that ‘Brexit’ is causing economic uncertainty. I think we can park the ‘Brexit’ conversation until October where I see this becoming front and centre again. We have the Conservative Party conference on the 1st of October with Brexit negotiations on the 9th October. Until then markets will be focusing more on economic fundamentals.

Tomorrow is a decade since the start of the financial crisis. Is the UK walking into another one? I don’t believe so. However, there are a few warning signs that may weigh on Sterling. Wage growth is stagnant and going backwards. On Wednesday we have UK inflation Report Hearings out of the UK. What is likely to be reported? As discussed earlier in the year I expect UK inflation to hit 3% this year. A full percentage point above the target rate. This translates to the man in the street having less money in his pocket whilst wages aren’t going anywhere. With costs rising more people are borrowing. Consumer debt is climbing higher with the amount of people paying for things on credit increasing. Indeed, the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded a large portion of UK Consumer debt last week.

To add to the aforementioned points we had a relatively lacklustre Bank of England meeting. As expected rates were left at 0.25% and the bond buying program remained at £435 billion. Growth forecasts were revised lower with the UK sluggishly crawling along. Growth is expected at 1.7% this year. I expect this to be revised lower still. Do I see any upside for Sterling this month? Nope. The only move higher likely on GBP/EUR will be down to a scale back of market long positions on the single currency. There are no real events this month with most investors and traders sitting on a beach sipping Pina coladas or Strawberry Daquiri’s.

If you are a EUR buyer from Sterling consider locking in some of your exposure. If you can stay above 1.10 over the summer months I would consider this a good level to achieve. Should GBP/EUR be higher than it is currently trading at? Absolutely. However, the Single Currency is currently the darling of the market so until we see her elbowed out of the picture then pressure is going to remain to the downside. Please contact me or the trading department for a rate of exchange.

If you are converting Euro’s back into Sterling lock in the majority of your exposure at these levels. Don’t get greedy. I do believe we will go below 1.10 although due to the lack of grown ups in charge around the world anything can happen. Take advantage of the moves. On your remaining amount of exposure consider implementing market orders. Contact the trading department to discuss appropriate levels to aim for.

Sterling/Dollar

Where are we going? We dropped off from levels above 1.32 after the release of the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) figure. We’re trading above 1.30 without any clear direction either way at present.

You can view the movements on Sterling/Dollar last week on the graph below –

GBP/USD 1 Week

Non-Farm Payrolls came in above expectations at 209K against consensus estimates of 183K. The jobless rate fell to 4.3%. Cable (GBP/USD) fell to 5 day lows around 1.3090 on the release. Politics will continue to weigh on dollar sentiment due to the inability to get anything going from a Fiscal point of view.

Will the US raise rates this year? Will they start to reduce the Balance sheet? I’m largely Dollar neutral at present with a slight bias to the downside. I expect Cable (GBP/USD) to hang around the 1.30 level short-term. For Sterling/Dollar to drop below 1.30 the figure it will be Sterling weakness that drags it lower.

As discussed a few weeks ago, Sterling/Dollar is toppish around 1.33. We’ve challenged the mid-1.32s and we’ve now moved lower. If you are USD buyer from GBP lock in above 1.30 if you can. I don’t see Sterling/Dollar moving much higher in 2017.

If you hold USD and need to convert back to Sterling consider placing market orders at 1.30 the figure as the first point of resistance. Please do get in touch with our Trading department to discuss specific technical levels that need to be broken. They can then provide you with guidance on exact market levels to aim for over the coming weeks.

If you have any questions on any of the above please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update 31 July 2017

Game of Thrones is well and truly back on screens and The White House communications team and former Chief of Staff have undergone their own version of the Red Wedding. North Korea has launched yet another ICBM, giving it a theoretical reach across to the US mainland and Trump responds with some strongly worded Tweets, expressing further displeasure with China’s inaction. Russia has given the US notice on expelling three quarters of US diplomats, in apparent retaliation to the US Senate’s overwhelming approval for a bill to toughen sanctions on Russia (for allegedly meddling in the 2016 US presidential election and for its annexation of Crimea in 2014). Please don’t forget that in December last year, then US President Barack Obama ordered the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats and closed two embassy summer houses in Washington that were said to have been used by Moscow for espionage.

All of the above comes under the shadow of the Republicans failing to repeal or replace the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care) which continues to raise concerns and further weakens USD value. Its all getting a bit Tom Clancy and something of a consensus has emerged in the currency markets to sell USD.

GBP/USD

In the UK, Preliminary GDP remained unchanged at 0.3%, matching the estimate. Over in the US, Advance GDP posted a strong gain in 2.6% in the second quarter, above the estimate. The headlines here are political risk continuing to rise, in no small part due to Trump’s failure to pass a healthcare bill weighed on the US dollar. The US dollar is under pressure, with mixed numbers in Q2 and worries that the Fed might not raise rates in December. Cable also moved to a 10-month-high above 1.31 but it is important to note that the recent trend has been mostly down to USD weakness rather than GBP strength. There is still strong probability that GBPUSD will fall back below 1.30 this year, especially if the Tory Cabinet “Civil War” starts to look any more messy.

Clients with USD requirements might wish to take advantage of the recent moves by securing funds with a series of spot and forward contracts.

 GBP/USD movement can be seen on the graph below:

GBP/EUR

Brexit worries continue to darken the mood of investors for GBP, as the start of negotiations between the UK and the EU has revealed wide gaps between the two sides and significant internal differences and infighting within the government but also especially Mrs May’s cabinet. None the less, Euro lost some ground following the release of PMI figures all missing expectations but still the UK economy is slowing due to exchange costs driving the cost of imports higher and the squeeze of inflation taking its toll. It all points towards the BoE not increasing interest rates this week. None the less, the BoE will publish its latest quarterly inflation report on Thursday. Any downward revisions to growth will not help GBP value next week. 

Clients selling GBP may want to hedge downside risks by securing funds on spot or forward contracts before Thursday morning.

GBP/EUR movement can be seen on the graph below:

EUR/USD

The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 1-1.25% and USD was sold off immediately after the event and continued to decline during the Asia session. EURUSD reached close to 1.1780 last week, the highest level since January 2015. The pair opened this week above 1.17. Further support for EUR comes from the divergence in policy from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for the time being, as market chatter over the likeliness of ECB ‘tapering’ in the coming months seems to have replaced the possibility of further tightening by the Fed.

The US releases Non Farm Payrolls (NFP jobs report) on Friday, crucial for USD relative value. Markets are expecting 187,000 new jobs in July. If NFP figures disappoint it is likely to lead to further USD currency losses. Average earnings will be closely monitored as the inflation level has been affected by recent sluggish wage growth. If wages don’t increase by at least 0.3% we will likely see USD drop at the end of the week, ongoing through to next. Follow the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs this week as good indicators of job growth and therefore the likely direction of travel for USD.

Euro movement against the Dollar can be seen on the graph below:

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, winter is coming. Have a great week.

Written by Damien Lipman

ACM Update 24 July 2017

The Euro still has the wind in its sail. Sterling does not. Viewing the Sterling/Euro rate at present is painful. It is as painful as being kidnapped and made to sit in a room, watching endless episodes of Love Island, with people that fill their sentences with ‘like’ ‘literally’ and ‘basically’. Will GBP/EUR break through the psychological level to the downside of 1.10 the figure? We will see.

You can view the moves last week on GBP/EUR on the graph below –

Sterling had its worst week against the single currency in nine months. Over a 2% move lower. This has largely been driven by Euro strength and thoughts that the ECB (European Central Bank) would tighten monetary policy next year. UK inflation figures also didn’t help Sterling’s cause. The release came in at 2.6% instead of the consensus estimate of 2.9% last week. This led to Sterling being sold off with the chances of a rate hike from the Bank of England looking less likely this year.

Is the Euro overbought at current levels or will we see further pressure on Sterling/Euro over the summer months? As mentioned in previous articles I am Sterling negative over the summer. The past week has done little to change my view. We may see Sterling/Euro climb a little and settle back in the 1.12-1.15 range for a while although I expect a move under 1.10 by end of August. If you have a requirement to purchase Euro’s from Sterling please do consider locking in some above 1.10. Sterling/Euro has rallied slightly this morning on the back of poor German manufacturing data. I think this will be the exception rather than the rule over the coming months. If you would like a SPOT rate please get in touch with the trading department.

Last week Mario Draghi, the ECB President, gave his press conference. Despite his dovish tone and the bond buying program remaining capped at €60 Billion and no change to interest rates investors bought the Euro. Why? The market is taking his comments with a pinch of salt. The Eurozone recovery will continue. I expect a scale back in Bond purchases from early next year even if publicly they say this hasn’t been discussed. This will likely be announced once we get the summer out the way and the word ‘tapering’ comes back into fashion at the September meeting.   

If you’re a EUR seller consider covering off a sizeable amount of your requirement back to Sterling on a SPOT basis. Again, contact the Trading department or me directly for a rate of exchange. As detailed above I see further pressure on GBP/EUR in the next 3 months. It may be worth considering market orders over the next few months. If you would like to discuss appropriate levels to target let me know.

Sterling/Dollar

On the surface Sterling/Dollar looks to be holding up rather well right? Wrong. The Market views the dollar as fundamentally bearish with it being sold off heavily against the Euro for example. We’re trading above 1.1650 on EUR/USD. With Fiscal stimulus looking more and more of a challenge for the yellow haired red tie wearing chap in the White House the Dollar has been sold off. In addition, the resignation of a key spokesman further intensified political upheaval for the US Government.

So, with all this going on and mixed data from the US Cable (GBP/USD) should be trading a lot higher. The fact Cable (GBP/USD) is trading marginally lower against the US Dollar says it all really. Sterling is not performing well. We may see a short-term bounce higher back to the 1.31-1.33 range although I then expect a number of short positions to come in with Sterling/Dollar taking a Tom Daley inspired dive off the top board.

You can view the trend lower last week in GBP/USD on the graph below –

If you are a USD buyer from GBP lock in some above 1.30. This is going to be the upper end of the range for 2017. Please contact the trading department for a SPOT rate. We may see some spikes higher on an intraday basis so we can look to structure market orders on a GTC (Good till cancelled) basis for you. If you would like to discuss levels to aim for please let me know.

What do we have out this week? From the UK we have Q2 growth figures out and also the inflation report hearings. These are due out Wednesday morning. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has lowered UK Growth forecasts (as well as the US) so will we see a dip in figures on Wednesday? There will be Sterling volatility around these releases so make sure you have something in place to either protect yourself from movements against you or to take advantage of any moves in your favour. Adding fuel to the fire on Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy statement. Do I expect a rate rise? Chances are practically nil. Inflation in the US is falling so will this have an effect on the Federal Reserve sending signals on the expect one more rate hike penciled in for this year? Possibly. There may be Dollar movement around this event.

There are slightly thinner markets over the summer with less liquidity so any moves can prove more dramatic than normal. Please make sure you have a plan in place for the remainder of July and into August.

Have a fantastic week and enjoy the rain soaked London summer.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update 17 July 2017

The Summer social calendar is lighter for another year. Pimms and Strawberry sales will likely decline this week after the end of Wimbledon with Federer proving himself a true great. Lewis Hamilton won Silverstone once more putting himself in with a chance of proving himself a true great in the coming years. Will Sterling prove herself a true great later this week and climb the currency ladder? Hmmm. Whilst the aforementioned scale great heights in single bounds, I feel Sterling will limp slowly higher like a wounded asthmatic climbing Everest.

Why will Sterling struggle to move higher? The gains made last week against both the US Dollar and the Euro were largely down to those currencies weakness rather than any sustained Strength in Sterling. Indeed, we moved over 1% higher on Cable (GBP/USD) and Sterling/Euro last week.

You can view the movements on Sterling/Dollar below –

Why was the Dollar sold off? I think we can now take for granted that there will always be some political catastrophe waiting round the corner in the US. The Trump administration seem destined for ongoing shenanigans akin to the Netflix series House of Cards. That’s one reason.  Another few reasons are the inflation and retail sales figures out of the US. Inflation came in at 1.6% and Retail Sales fell by 0.2% last month against a consensus estimate of a jump of 0.1%. Consumer sentiment is also off. This weighed on the US Dollar.

In addition, we had the Federal Reserve Chairperson, Janet Yellen speaking. Her tone was slightly dovish so this dampened rate hike expectations for the remainder of 2017. I expect this tone to continue over the summer months with words like ‘gradual’ and ‘steady’ in relation to rate hikes. The dollar sell off helped EM (Emerging Market) currencies like ZAR and TRY rally. Another winner was the Aussie Dollar gaining over 1% against the US Dollar.

Where do I expect Sterling/Dollar to go in the next few months? I expect Sterling to come under further pressure over the coming months. Our Brexit ‘strategy’ is looking far from aligned at present with the Government doing its jolly best to send out mixed and confusing messages. Still, having listened to the Shadow Business secretary over the weekend I think we’re going to have to stick with the current incumbents to see this through. Data out of the UK recently hasn’t been all bad. The employment rate jumped to a record high and people out of work fell to the lowest level since 1975. Inflation however is at 2.9% and with wage growth stuttering this is going to start hitting the man on the street in the pocket. “What’s that got to do with the price of fish” is no longer just a phrase.

If you are USD buyer from Sterling lock in some currency at current SPOT prices or alternatively out on a short dated forward contract for the next three months. I would look at covering off a sizeable portion of your current exposure around the 1.30 mark. Please contact the Trading Department for a rate of exchange on both a SPOT and Forward Contract basis.

What do we have out this week that will move Cable (GBP/USD)?  We are light on US data after numerous releases last week. Any movements on Sterling/Dollar will be due to inflation data out of the UK on Tuesday, CPI (YoY and (MoM) (Jun) with expectations at 2.9% and 0.2% respectively. We also have the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, speaking on Tuesday. EUR/USD price action is also likely to move Sterling/Dollar with the stand out market event this week being the ECB press conference.

Sterling/Euro

All eyes will be on Mario Draghi this week. After his last press conference and language used the single currency turned bullish. EUR/USD moved from fighting the 1.12 level to now trade above 1.14 with eyes on another leg higher to the psychological level of 1.15 the figure. Will we get another strong performance and in turn see the Euro and bond yields push further higher? I have my doubts. I think Draghi will be more considered with the language he uses in relation to signals on monetary policy. Will a fixed date be set on when the bond buying program will be wound down? I expect Mario Draghi, the ECB president, to cool markets and expectations on tapering. I’d expect any announcement after the summer months. This ‘steady’ and ‘gradual’ language and approach will likely see the Euro weaken off slightly.

If you are a seller of Sterling and buyer of Euro’s then do consider firstly taking advantage of the move higher last week in Sterling/Euro. Please view the movements on the graph below –

We were trading in the 1.12’s last week so if you have any SPOT transactions to make consider taking advantage of the percent or so move higher. Please contact the Trading department for a rate of exchange. Also, consider placing orders in the market to take advantage of any volatility around inflation data out of the UK tomorrow or the ECB press conference on Thursday.

If you are a EUR seller and didn’t take advantage of the moves into the 1.12’s last week please get in touch and we can structure something for you to take advantage of any dips lower.

If you have any questions please do let me know.

Have a fantastic week.

Written by Liam Alexander

ACM Update 10 July 2017

Sing a song of six pence, in Jamaica you can get a steak and kidney pie for the exchanged equivalent of £1.75, a chicken and mushroom pie for £1.60 and an apple pie for £2.15. In St Kitts and Nevis a steak and kidney pie will cost you £2, and a cherry pie can be yours for the equivalent of £1.95. In Trinidad and Tobago, that steak and kidney pie comes in at £2.50, but you can get two for £3.50. Their apple pies and cherry pies are often sold for £2.75, with a combination of any two going for £4.75. Mince Pies are largely unavailable, except by private arrangement and imported from London and Brighton. Those, ladies and gentlemen, are the Pie Rates of the Caribbean (with thanks to Graham Williams) and so begins our week.

GBP/USD

I was going to lead with something on the G20 but opted for a short moment of mirth, now we must get back to business as GBP has continued its dive since last Friday morning. An early sell off in Asia (again) this morning continues what appears to be the realities of Brexit woes coming home to roost like four and twenty black birds. All three PMIs reported softer growth for the UK in May so Mrs May has made a (potentially desperate) bid to the Labour leadership to rally with her towards the negotiations with the remainder of the EU. In the US, there was mixed news on the employment front, as Nonfarm Payrolls rebounded to 222k but wage growth remained weak.

Whilst the UK shows signs of flagging, the Fed is on record that it intends to raise interest rates a third time in 2017, even though the markets have their doubts, as inflation remains weak and second quarter numbers in the US have not exactly been baked in a pie. If you are planning on buying USD you may want to fix a forward contract to guarantee the rate of exchange later in the year as Sterling/Dollar may well move lower.

GBP/EUR

We have already seen the market open this morning at a crust over 1.13 and continues to blip around the same level. Poor manufacturing data released on Friday, reminded us that data still has the power to influence moves in a currency pair that has suffered more from politics than anything else for some time now. Employment data out on Wednesday will be looking for wage growth if GBP is to have any revival. Anything below 1.8% will mean bad things for Stirling as confirmation of inflation wearing away the benefits of earnings. To be fair, the writing is on the wall for GBP this week and in the UK we may yet have to suffer more humble pie.

With a downward trend the most likely for GBP, you might want to consider de-risking your outlook for EUR and trading at spot rates as early in the week as possible. For EUR sellers the end of day figures are the most relevant and will provide some indication of how far the assault on GBP will go. Placing a market order would help us to help you hit your target pricing.

EUR/USD

This currency pair has begun this week much the same as it ended last week, hovering around or just below the 1.14, shedding almost half the gains made last week. The ECB continues to try to balance the view, but sometimes confuses markets. An ECB official said that tapering has not (yet) been discussed, sending EUR down. Later, the ECB meeting minutes showed that they had considered removing the easing bias, allowing for a recovery. German retail sales beat expectations while factory orders disappointed. PMIs were mostly positive. In the US, the Fed is also split around the timing of the balance sheet reduction as doubts about the third hike in 2017 persist.

Germany (the economic powerhouse of the Eurozone) releases trade balance figures today and is likely to show an increase in the already huge trade surplus, like a pocket full of rye, for the month of May. This is likely to lead to a commensurate trade balance announcement from the ECB on Friday. Timing your transactions is key. Please contact me or a member of the trading team to discuss your upcoming requirements in detail.

Not trading your currency is still a risk. The markets will move, volatility and relative values will vary but whatever your foreign currency exchange and international payment needs are, you can rely on the team here at Aston Currency Management. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with us, we look forward to hearing from you. Now, if you will excuse me, I have to help the maid find her nose. Have a great week.

Written by Damien Lipman